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. The first is policy-driven. Demographic changes appear larger in human history, and is often associated with famine, disease or war. Changes and the popularity of modern contraceptive social life patterns also affected the birth rate,UGG ブーツ 人気, but like China through policy interventions affect fertility curve, changes in social relations, it is unprecedented. Decided to have a second child in China is not from the family, not even from God, but on the government. Followed by a cliff-type population structure changes. Because of the one-child policy is a man-made decision by the government to implement the will and the means to make China's population growth rate appears rip,UGG ブーツ 正規品, labor supply is more cliff-like figure fell, we are about to enter a period of ferocious artificial shortage of labor. The third characteristic is old before getting rich. China's economy has made remarkable achievements in the past 30 years, people income also increased significantly. However, due to structural defects in the population, unless another leap in productivity per capita, we are not waiting for the national well-off, had already entered the aging society. And because the inverted demographic pyramid, the whole society will face ultra high dependency ratio, the family,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, society and the state are extremely heavy burden. The first argument against changing the demographic policy is, in the past 30 young students of the 400 million population, creating a "demographic dividend for a longer time window." This is a historical fact, but it is precisely the reason for population policies must be changed as soon as possible. Population 50-70 years of last century energy building up,アグ モカシン, is the next 30 years of reform and opening up policy released, China's export wave, the wave of consumption, China's real estate wave refraction baby boomers life cycle,アグ モカシン, providing for the economic take-off power. However, baby boomers nearing retirement age,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, his China's one-child policy began in the seventies, eighties became mandatory policy since, at the time of the economic and social environment for the management of the population plays some help , but also for the 1980s and 1990s economic boom, alleviate some of the burden. However, when the demographic dividend has been exhausted, labor supply close to its peak, more importantly, the number of dual structure caused by migrant workers migrant workers has dropped significantly. This brings soaring wages in recent years, weakening the industry (especially export manufacturing) This traditional growth engine. Considerable significance in the structural dilemma of China's economy emerged today, with the reversal of population structure has a direct relationship. Their life cycle starts turning from labor pension, steering consumption savings from savings. Under the conditions of modern medicine, senior citizens over 80 years of ultra-rapid increase in the population, their medical health spending is 8 times 60-year-old population. Chinese labor force each dependent population over 60 years of retirement, 2030 will be four times the current ratio. This is an urgent challenge. Change in population policy against the second reason is that the pressure of population growth on resources and the environment is huge, China has increased the population can not afford further
。首先是政策主导。人类历史上人口结构出现较大变化,往往和饥荒、疾病或战争关联。现代社会生活模式的改变及避孕手段的普及,也影响了出生率,但是像中国这样通过政策干预影响生育曲线、改变社会关系,则是史无前例的。在中国生育第二个孩子的决定不是来自家庭,甚至不是来自上帝,而是取决于政府。其次是断崖式人口构造变化。由于独生子女政策是一项人为的决定,通过政府意志和手段推行,UGG ブーツ 人気,使得中国的人口增长率出现裂口,劳动力供应图更有断崖式的下跌,我们即将进入一段人造的来势凶猛的劳动力短缺期。第三个特征是未富先老。中国经济在过去30年取得了骄人的成就,国人收入亦有大幅上升。然而,UGG ブーツ 店舗,由于人口结构上的缺陷,除非人均生产率又一次飞跃,我们未等全民小康,便已进入老龄社会。而且由于倒金字塔的人口结构,整个社会将面临超高的供养比率,对家庭、社会和国家都是极其沉重的负担。反对改变人口政策的第一个理由是,过去30年少生了4亿人口,创造了“一段较长时间的人口红利窗口”。这个是历史事实,但也恰恰是人口政策必须尽快改变的理由。上世纪50-70年代积聚起来的人口能量,被接下来的30年改革开放政策所释放,中国的出口浪潮、消费浪潮、房地产浪潮折射着中国婴儿潮人群的生命周期,为经济的起飞提供了动力。然而,婴儿潮人群已经接近退休年龄,他中国的独生子女政策,始于七十年代,自从八十年代变成强制性政策,在当时的经济、社会环境下,对于管理人口起到了一定的帮助,也为上世纪八、九十年代经济起飞,减轻了一定的负担。然而,当年的人口红利已经消耗殆尽,劳动力供应接近顶峰,更重要的是,二元结构所造成的农民工进城打工的人数已经大幅下降。这带来了近年工资的暴涨,弱化了制造业(尤其是出口制造业)这个传统增长引擎。在相当意义上,中国经济今天所出现的结构性困境,与人口结构上的逆转有着直接的关系。们的人生周期开始从劳动转向养老,从储蓄转向消耗储蓄。在现代的医学条件下,80岁以上的超高龄人群在迅速增加,UGG ブーツ 正規品,UGG ブーツ 店舗,他们的医疗健康开支是60岁人群的8倍。中国每个劳动人口供养的60岁以上退休人口,至2030年将是目前比率的4倍。这是一个迫在眉睫的挑战。反对改变人口政策的第二个理由是,人口增长对资源、环境的压力巨大,中国已经承受不了进一步人口增长了
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